Monday 18 June 2012

Greek crisis just got worse.

While Syriza supporters celebrated into the night - as their alliance had polled 27% of the popular vote in yesterday's Greek election (26.89%) - and the popular vote against austerity added up to 47% (as against only 42% for the pro-austerity parties), the crisis for the Greek people will now get worse.

In the first place New Democracy's vote of 30% and PASOK's vote of 12 % means that ND is entitled to the 50 parliamentary seat advantage given, under the Greeks constitution, to the leading party. Second, these two parties are the political expression of the Greek rulers, the historical movers and shakers that have run the country prior to and since the Colonels in the 1970s. Pasok will dicker but one way or another it will support an ND government.

Third, the left alternative were seriously divided. The Greek communist party halved its vote sine the last election by concentrating its fire on Syriza. But even with its reduced support of 4.5% it could have joined the Syriza alliance and together become the leading party (and collected the additional 50 seat entitlement) at THIS election. The Syriza alliance would then have topped ND by 2%. Sectarianism could prove to be a disastrous mistake on the part of the Greek Communist Party leadership - reminding us of the famous 1932 slogan of the German communists (who spent the election denouncing the German Social Democrats as 'social fascists' in the election of that year) 'after Hitler - then us!'

Most seriously and fourthly, a significant proportion of the anti-austerity vote (15%) went to right and far right 'Independent Greece' and 'Golden Dawn' (6.92% in the latter case.) Golden Dawn are now being openly cheered on by sections of the police force in the streets of Athens. The Greek rulers have consolidated their moves for 'emergency rule' if -and when - the `ND/PASOK arrangement falls apart under the pressure of the growing desperation of the mass of Greek people.  (It is a sobering thought that Germany's Nazis polled 2.6% of the vote in the 1928 elections and were the largest party in the elections of 1932.)

Syriza supporters celebrated into the night in Athens about their high vote. The leadership have pledged to lead the opposition to austerity and to fight the new government from the streets as well as in Parliament. Hmm. It is dangerous to form impressions from afar but here goes anyway. It seemed that there was some relief about not taking over the government among some Syriza supporters; that it would be a much better tactical plan to be in opposition until the worst blows over.

I don't think that's true. I think it may turn into a severe problem, if not a disaster, for the left that they were unable to seize this moment. Greek people wanted strong, bold measures taken to fight the super rich and the EU leadership that are ruining their country. Now they will get a deepening of the current policy. And because the left have not been bold and non-sectarian enough, the left will now find themselves in a bitter struggle with the far right over the leadership of Greek's anti-austerity movement.

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