News of danger

Initial reports give Marine Le Pen 20% of the French vote in the first round of today's presidential elections.  She was 8% behind Hollande who scored most. Melanchon, the Communist Party backed left alliance's candidate, came in with 11% and not 16% - which had been predicted in earlier polls and had been seen as level pegging with Le Pen. The turnout is over 70%. Millions of french voters, one in five, have, for the second time in a decade, backed a fascist for their president. And baby Le Pen has scored 4% more than her father.

French commentators are already predicting a sharp turn to the right by Sarkozy in the second round as he seeks to scoop up 20% of the popular vote. Even if he still loses to Hollande, the first round vote illuminates the shape of things, showing a more equally balanced polarisation of french society rather than any decisive shift to the left.

From the outside this would appear to illustrate the foolishness of all parts of the non Socialist Party left in France not to combine in the first round behind a united candidate and not to have all sounded the bell to warn of the growing fascist danger. More worrying still will be the Socialist party's reaction of caution in the face of the rise of the extreme right - with its inevitable accompanying watchword of
'Do nothing! And at a snail's pace!' This policy, frighteningly familiar from the 1930s, can only demoralise the left, irritate France's elites without reducing their power and go on to strengthen the appeal of those who shout, march, bang the drum and launch their attacks in the dark.