About the most appalling thing about Milibean's latest wisdom in support of pay reductions - yes reductions - for public sector workers in order for them to 'save' their jobs, is his sincerely held belief that he will win back middle class voters in the SE of England because of his 'seriousness' about the economic crisis. He knows that Unite and the GMB (and other unions) will feel deliberately provoked. Milibean and his Oxbridge generals have 'factored that in' to the whole sorry performance. Annoying the unions (in the middle of their vital battle over pensions - not wage increases) is part of the object. It is supposed to make Labour look 'decisive and 'independent of its main financial backers.'
Let's 'do the math' on this political genius's calculations.
Leave aside threats about the union's political funds. Labour's hotshots probably calculate that in the absence of anything else they'll get those anyway. They are broadly in the gift of the union leaderships for the moment. We'll see. More importantly, how are a million public sector workers going to respond? Most vote. They are a section of the working class vote that has, broadly, held up. Many already hold their noses voting for Labour. In Scotland they will vote SNP. In England many more will abstain. Labour has, at a stroke, persuaded them that 'the parties are all the same.' That alone is an election loser.
What is the blindingly obvious political terrain for Labour to occupy? The coalition has no policy for growth. The UK's debt (and Spain's and Ireland's and Greece's) is larger today than it was in 2008. Osborn is on the rack. In Scotland Salmond has set up a government sponsored long term capital investment bank. Milibean needs desperately to outflank him to retain a base north of the border. But he is running - in the opposite direction. Labour leaders are speculating about how best to commit suicide.
But this is our appeal to 'the squeezed middle', Labour's strategists claim. They have become victims of their own (lack of) analysis. It is true that the lower middle classes in England are are suffering - but disproportionately less than the social groups beneath them. A key sector in the South East have got into buying cheap property and renting - which is booming. This group is inherently politically unstable and economically 'ducks and dives' with the prevailing wind. Even the Tories do not fight for their allegiance. Milibean has been swallowing too much of 'Joe the Plumber' (lately of US presidential election fame) for his own good.
Wait a minute. I spy a conspiracy! Are the Labour leaders playing a bigger game? Do they see their only possible future as being part of the call for a National Government when the next turn of the economic crisis throws us all into chaos again? Last time (1931) most of Labour stood out - and had to wait till '45 before getting back. This time - well - they might even initiate the call for one themselves! Is that what is simmering in the top Labour brains?
Nah...Destroy the people's hopes for any genuine alternative for a generation? Certainly. But I don't believe they have the smarts to work out what looks like it could be next in our politics for themselves. If there is another economic lurch the Labour leadership will only fall into line with a National Government approach once our rulers drop them an elephant sized hint.
We, on the other hand, have been warned. To all intent and purposes, they are already there.
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