Two paradoxes

As I write the US is threatened with a drop in its credit rating which financial commentators tell us, is enough on its own to push the western world off a cliff. If that were not enough the rot is spreading in Euroland. The Financial Times (Weekend edition) writes that we may face another crash in the western world but adds we can hope for rescue by the Chinese. Indeed, the english language China daily (15 July) cheerfully announces that China would be prepared to buy LloydsTSB if anyone were prepared to sell it!

Meanwhile in Britain we are all staring at Mr Murdoch. There is a fascination in the gaudy entanglements of Messrs Cameron (and Blair before him) in the seedy world of the uncooth super rich. In a strange way it underlines the first of our paradoxes. We (and our government) are obsessing over celebrity and corruption. The shrieks and groans of a sick system that can bring us all down are, for the moment, somewhere off stage. The huge social forces coming into battle across the southern part of Europe are a distant chimera. Crisis? What crisis? The coalition government, and all who sail in her, buffeted by Murdoch's petty squall, are in poor shape to float through the tsunami to come.

This image is not a fantasy. The coalition government has no serious social base. When Thatcher attacked us no doubt she had slim victories in elections and she was lucky that her opposition were split but, marshalled behind her were millions who had bought their council house and who aspired to move up in the world from their social station in the skilled working class. This solid base, plus the deliberately overpaid gung-ho police, were enough to see her through. Cameron on the other hand scored 10 million votes (against 14 million for non cuts parties at the time of the election) and can offer a new life to precisely nobody. The Archbishop is right. The coalition has no mandate for savage cuts. More important than that - given our insane voting system - they have no serious social base. Accordingly, whether it is the forests or the NHS, 'listening to the people' (performing U Turns) has become a mantra.

The government hopes to win a social base by opposing and threatening the unions. Sadly for them, even under conditions where not one media outlet and not one political leader supported the June 30 industrial action, polls consistently showed a majority supporting the striker's cause and nearly a half supporting the action.

Conclusion? This government is very weak. But that, alas, is not the same as saying we are strong!